Dermot Hardy

The NBER has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020, ending the longest expansion in the history of U.S. business cycles…

In an interview with Bloomberg Markets, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff make some convincing arguments why they believe that the global economy will take significantly longer to recover from the…

Lower Passenger Capacity Going Forward As widely expected there has been an increase in the number of airlines entering bankruptcy proceedings. The CDS market is indicating that Americal Airlines may…

In a rare and strongly-worded statement, in reaction to the German Constitutional Courts ruling, the ECJ affirmed its sole “jurisdiction to rule that an act of an EU institution is…

The German constitutional courts decision to set aside the ECJ's 2018 decision has enormous implications for the principle of primacy of EU law over national law. This potentially has huge…

A timely article from The Irish Times outlines a decidedly negative turn in geopolitics which is currently taking place. Diplomatic and military sabre-rattling on the Chinese side is countered by…

An interesting article in The Economist that suggests that the post-crisis economy that is currently emerging will be fundamentally different from the one we knew earlier this year. The outlook…

Like most Big Trades, the fundamental rules remain the same! Liquidity, timing & luck! As John Maynard Keynes allegedly said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”…

The move is widely seen as the ECB taking a pre-emptive move before the rating agencies start to downgrade European sovereign debt. Investors are concerned that Standard & Poor’s scheduled…

The industry’s outlook grows darker by the day. The scale of the crisis makes a sharp V-shaped recovery unlikely. Realistically, it will be a U-shaped recovery with domestic travel coming…