China and the US, The New Sleepwalkers?
A timely article from The Irish Times outlines a decidedly negative turn in geopolitics which is currently taking place. Diplomatic and military sabre-rattling on the Chinese side is countered by…
The 90% economy that lockdowns will leave behind
An interesting article in The Economist that suggests that the post-crisis economy that is currently emerging will be fundamentally different from the one we knew earlier this year. The outlook…
The Big Short 2.0
Like most Big Trades, the fundamental rules remain the same! Liquidity, timing & luck! As John Maynard Keynes allegedly said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”…
ECB to Accept Junk Bonds as Collateral
The move is widely seen as the ECB taking a pre-emptive move before the rating agencies start to downgrade European sovereign debt. Investors are concerned that Standard & Poor’s scheduled…
All Set for Take-Off, But When?
The industry’s outlook grows darker by the day. The scale of the crisis makes a sharp V-shaped recovery unlikely. Realistically, it will be a U-shaped recovery with domestic travel coming…
Stephanie Kelton on Modern Monetary Theory
Lunch with the FT features s one of the leading advocates of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), the idea that if a government is in charge of its own currency, no…
Negative Yield Curves & Recessions!!
According to Cam Harvey's model, the economy usually enters recession 12 months after first turning negative. With the initial inversion in March 2019, the model forecast a US recession starting…
Regulators Consider Leveraged Loans the new Sub-prime
There have been several high profile warnings from regulators about the potential for leveraged loans to trigger the next financial crisis. In the past week leveraged loans have fallen to…