Avoiding the Bubble – when the music stops!
I am struck by the recent large number of decentralised finance (DeFi) company collapses such as Celsius and 3AC (Three Arrow). These failures have rightly increased calls for regulation with a…
Is the super debt cycle fuelled by liquidity about to collapse?
Mark Spitznagel believes that we are in a super debt-fueled bubble and that there is no way to time a market crash or tactically trade it, adopting such a strategy…
Europcar – Bond Auction Flop
Normally when a corporate credit defaults, the purchasers of Credit Default Swap (CDS) protection receive a payout to compensate them for losses. In the case of Europcar, some holders of…
Dead Companies Walking?
Although there have been relatively few liquidations during the pandemic crisis, this can be attributed to forbearance and government supports. Given the unprecedented drop in company revenues and the high…
China and the US, The New Sleepwalkers?
A timely article from The Irish Times outlines a decidedly negative turn in geopolitics which is currently taking place. Diplomatic and military sabre-rattling on the Chinese side is countered by…
The Big Short 2.0
Like most Big Trades, the fundamental rules remain the same! Liquidity, timing & luck! As John Maynard Keynes allegedly said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”…
ECB to Accept Junk Bonds as Collateral
The move is widely seen as the ECB taking a pre-emptive move before the rating agencies start to downgrade European sovereign debt. Investors are concerned that Standard & Poor’s scheduled…