Higher Risk = Lower Rewards!
Overall it is a definite concern that the flows of cash into high-yield bonds and loans are pushing their yield to record lows at a time when defaults are actually…
Lower for Longer?
And the V becomes L? An interesting analysis by Bloomberg who have analysed 36 recessions since 1965 across the G-7 countries and this suggests a L-shaped recovery is more likely…
Hertz – Bankrupt Stock Sale!
Interesting times when the US Securities Exchange Commission feels compelled to stop Hertz, in bankruptcy, selling new shares to the market. Given the capital structure of the company, any shares…
A ‘U’-‘V’ Recovery?
This recession is unprecedented in terms of the speed of its onset, government-mandated shutdowns and the combination of both a supply-side and demand-side shock! The recovery is also likely to…
U.S. Officially Entered Recession in February
The NBER has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020, ending the longest expansion in the history of U.S. business cycles…
This Time It Really Is Different!
In an interview with Bloomberg Markets, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff make some convincing arguments why they believe that the global economy will take significantly longer to recover from the…
Round two, the ECJ comes out fighting!
In a rare and strongly-worded statement, in reaction to the German Constitutional Courts ruling, the ECJ affirmed its sole “jurisdiction to rule that an act of an EU institution is…
German Court Decision Threatens to Upend the EU Legal System!
The German constitutional courts decision to set aside the ECJ's 2018 decision has enormous implications for the principle of primacy of EU law over national law. This potentially has huge…
The Big Short 2.0
Like most Big Trades, the fundamental rules remain the same! Liquidity, timing & luck! As John Maynard Keynes allegedly said, “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”…
ECB to Accept Junk Bonds as Collateral
The move is widely seen as the ECB taking a pre-emptive move before the rating agencies start to downgrade European sovereign debt. Investors are concerned that Standard & Poor’s scheduled…