Crypto the new Subprime?
There are similarities between crypto and subprime, however there is little threat to the financial system. Today, mainstream economist rail against crypto and financial theorists show it is an inefficient…
US Q3 Earnings Calls and the Spectre of Inflation!
US Q3 Earnings Calls support the proposition that supply side pressures are leading to increasing inflationary expectations.
Is the Bank of Japan the latest Bubble?
An interesting development has been the surge in the share price of the Bank of Japan, the Japanese Central Bank. This move does not appear to be supported by the…
By Land or by Sea?
The direct routes, as well as being longer, are more expensive. Despite these negatives, other than bad weather, the importers and exporters seem to value the relative certainty of delivery…
Lower for Longer?
And the V becomes L? An interesting analysis by Bloomberg who have analysed 36 recessions since 1965 across the G-7 countries and this suggests a L-shaped recovery is more likely…
Airlines – the canary sings!
IATA has once again revised down its pessimistic outlook. This new bleaker outlook is based on more recent passenger data which is even weaker than under its previous "dire" forecast.…
Airlines – a leading economic indicator?
The airline industry is one of the few global industries that have previous experience of dealing with a virus. The earliest forecasts for declines in passenger revenues were revised downwards…
A ‘U’-‘V’ Recovery?
This recession is unprecedented in terms of the speed of its onset, government-mandated shutdowns and the combination of both a supply-side and demand-side shock! The recovery is also likely to…
U.S. Officially Entered Recession in February
The NBER has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020, ending the longest expansion in the history of U.S. business cycles…
This Time It Really Is Different!
In an interview with Bloomberg Markets, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff make some convincing arguments why they believe that the global economy will take significantly longer to recover from the…